The PREDICT 2015 Report: An Analysis of ICT R&D – EU and Beyond provides a detailed analysis of the state of the Research and Development (R&D) activities in the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sectors in the European Union, and compares twelve countries. Data and analyses provided are based on data from official sources (Eurostat, OECD, National Statistical Institutes…), covering the period 2006-2012, cover the period 2006-2012, and until 2013 for data on public funding.
This analysis was carried out by the Information Society Unit of the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), with assistance of the Ivie, under the European PREDICT project (Prospective Insights on R&D in ICT). PREDICT is being run by JRC-IPTS for the Directorate General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CONNECT) of the European Commission. The analysis first provides an overview of the importance of the EU ICT Sector and its R&D. It then gives detailed information, by ICT manufacturing and service sub sectors and by EU Member State, and in comparison with other non‐EU economies that are currently taking the lead in the world economy, including both developed and emerging economies. The main contributions of the project are the disaggregation of the ICT sector according to the OECD’s definition (2007), a comprehensive database and a detailed analysis focused on policy design.
Data and analyses are structured according to the following categories: size of the ICT sector in terms of its share in GDP (i.e., ICT sector value added) and employment, labour productivity of the ICT sector, expenditure in R&D of the ICT companies (ICT BERD), R&D personnel and researchers in the ICT sector, and estimates of public funding of ICT R&D (ICT GBAORD) in the EU and its Member States.
Some of the PREDICT Report results are the following:
- The EU ICT sector continued to lose share in total value added from 4.10% in 2006 to 3.99% in 2012. The more intense job creation in the ICT sector compared to the whole economy resulted in an increase of the ICT sector share in terms of employment from 2.62% in 2006 to 2.76% in 2012. The combination of the movements of both variables (higher reduction in Gross Value Added –GVA– than employment in 2006–2009 and slower recovery in 2010–12) translated into a continuous fall in EU ICT sector labour productivity.
- ICT sector Business Enterprise R&D (BERD) Expenditure intensity (ICT sector BERD/ICT sector value added) experienced a slight increase between 2011 (5.51%) and 2012 (5.59%), but not as high as the increase between 2010 (5.31%) and 2011 (5.51%).
- The share of ICT R&D public funding (ICT GBAORD, Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays on R&D) of total GBAORD decreased slightly from 6.71% in 2011 to 6.68% in 2012, but recovered to 6.75% in 2013, the highest share since 2006. ICT GBAORD intensity (defined as ICT GBAORD/GDP –Gross Domestic Product) decreased slightly from 0.049% in 2011 to 0.047% in 2012, but increased to 0.048% in 2013.
- In 2011, for the first time since the onset of the crisis, the EU ICT manufacturing sector had positive growth rates in employment (0.28%), BERD (3.60%) and R&D personnel (3.32%), but negative growth rates in labour productivity (-6.17%) and ICT sector value added (-5.91%). However, in 2012 the ICT manufacturing sector again experienced negative growth rates in employment (-3.96%), value added (-11.71%), labour productivity (-8.07%) and BERD (-2.84%). Only R&D personnel increased by 1.27%, although this was lower than the increase in 2011 (3.32%).
- In 2012, the ICT sector in the US, the productivity leader in this sector, increased in terms of VA. Furthermore, differences in ICT productivity between the EU and the US continued to grow: US ICT productivity was twice that of the EU. These differences are also repeated in terms of R&D, where the EU is clearly behind the US and three Asian countries (Korea, Japan and Taiwan) in terms of both BERD intensity (BERD/VA) and ICT BERD intensity (ICT BERD/ICT VA).
Figures, a comparison of indicators, a data summary and the main results are available in the online version of the PREDICT 2015 report.
The database offers all the available information (value added, employment, labour productivity, business expenditures on R&D, R&D employment and researchers) for all countries and for each OECD ICT sector.