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Ivie
VALENCIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Ivie-Universitat de València Seminars 2011
III Conference on the Spanish banking sector:
the restructuring and future of the sector

Fundación Universidad-Empresa, Adeit
Plaza Virgen de la Paz, 3
46001 Valencia
Valencia, 15 November
Ivie

Universitat de València

In collaboration with:

Ministerio de ciencia e innovación

Conselleria d'Educació
Objectives

In the four years that have elapsed since the crisis began, the Spanish banking sector has suffered the effects in three different stages during the crisis: the liquidity crisis in international financial markets, the crisis in Spain's economy and the sovereign debt crisis. In this context, Spanish banks have seen a sharp increase in potentially problematic assets as a result of rising default rates and high exposure to real estate. Furthermore, Spanish banks' high level of external indebtedness has brought to light the tensions created by the closure of wholesale financial markets. More recently, in the current context of the sovereign debt crisis, the new process of recapitalization proposed in the European banking system involves an element of additional tension that could affect the recovery of credit.

The intensity, duration and slow recovery from the crisis in Spain has forced national authorities to implement important measures, in addition to other actions taken at international level. In the Spanish case, the measures are aimed at restructuring the sector to improve the efficiency of entities (through the creation of FROB), to alleviate liquidity problems (through the provision of guarantees to the debt or the purchase of financial assets), to increase investor confidence in the banking sector (by increasing the transparency of information and the requirement of higher levels of capitalization) and providing savings banks with new ways of accessing private capital (with the reform of the savings banks law).

The importance of the challenges faced by Spanish banks and the measures undertaken in this period of crisis make it necessary to provide insights that could be helpful, improving existing analyses and proposing new actions. Unfortunately, despite the significant measures taken and the profound restructuring of the sector, markets have yet to trust the strength of the Spanish banking sector. This is illustrated by the problems existing when accessing debt markets as well as equity markets.

The objective of the III Conference on the Spanish banking sector is to provide new elements for reflection, bringing together leading experts in the field. Specifically, the Conference is organized around three round tables: one with academics, another with analysts and the third with professionals from the sector.

Analyzing the restructuring and recapitalization of the savings banks sector is of particular interest given that in a short time the number of entities has been reduced to one third. The imbalances that had accumulated during the expansion phase showed their vulnerability in the crisis, as a result of installed excess capacity and high concentration of risk in real estate. In addition, the limitations they had to access private capital would condition the recovery from the crisis. For this reason, and apart from addressing these issues in different round tables, the closing conference will be on savings banks by the Deputy Director of CECA, Antonio Romero.

Programme

9:00–9:15. Apertura y presentación

Esteban Morcillo, Rector Magnífico de la Universitat de València

9:15–10:15. El punto de vista de los académicos

"El impacto de la crisis en el sector bancario español"
Joaquín Maudos, Universitat de València e Ivie

"Cambios en la orientación de la reestructuración bancaria"
Santiago Carbó, Universidad de Granada e Ivie

10:15–11:15. El punto de vista del sector bancario

"Reestructuración, liquidez y solvencia en el sector bancario español"
Jordi Gual, Estudios y Análisis Económico, "la Caixa"

"Futuro del sistema financiero español"
Jorge Sicilia, BBVA Research

11:15–11:45. Pausa – café

11:45–13:15. El punto de vista de los analistas

"El sector bancario y la crisis de la deuda europea"
José Carlos Díez, Intermoney

"Consecuencias para la banca del ajuste global de balance: hacia un nuevo modelo de capital, hacia un nuevo modelo de negocio y hacia un nuevo modelo de riesgos"
Juan Carlos Ureta, Renta 4 y Fundación de Estudios Financieros

"1985-2011: el viaje alucinante de la banca española entre la pérdida de riqueza comunal y las dudas sobre su solvencia"
Juan Ignacio Crespo, Analista económico

13:15–14:00. Conferencia de clausura

"La reforma del sistema financiero: nuevo marco de regulación y supervisión"
Antonio Romero, Director Adjunto de la CECA

Coordinator

Joaquín Maudos, Catedrático de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico de la Universitat de València e investigador del Ivie

Participants

Santiago Carbó, Catedrático de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico de la Universidad de Granada e Investigador del Ivie
Juan Ignacio Crespo, Analista económico y exdirector europeo de Thomson Reuters
Jordi Gual, Economista jefe de "la Caixa" y profesor del IESE Business School
José Carlos Díez, Economista jefe de Intermoney y profesor de Fundamentos de Economía de la Universidad de Alcalá
Joaquín Maudos, Catedrático de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico de la Universitat de València e investigador del Ivie
Antonio Romero, Director Adjunto de la CECA
Jorge Sicilia, Economista Jefe Grupo BBVA y Director BBVA Research
Juan Carlos Ureta, Presidente de Renta 4 y de la Fundación de Estudios Financieros

Venue

Fundación Universidad – Empresa, Adeit
Plaza Virgen de la Paz, 3
46001 Valencia